Mid-year update: Down but not out, yet

11 July 2019 | Markets and economy


In this short video, Vanguard Asia Pacific chief economist Dr. Qian Wang shares our latest views on key topics that concern investors the most for the rest of the year and beyond. Here’s the summary:

  • Global economic growth to slow further, but not a recession yet
  • US: soft landing likely with growth of 1.7% in 2019
  • China: not a hard landing, growth to remain above 6% in 2019 aided by policy stimulus
  • Trade: US-China tension more than about trade, but long-term competitiveness. Any deal reached may not be comprehensive enough nor long lasting, hence uncertainty and volatility to persist
  • Inflation: unlikely to accelerate, with expectations well anchored given structural forces in place
  • Monetary policy: global central banks turning dovish; the Fed is expected to take a 50 bps insurance cut as early as in July to reverse yield curve inversion and contain recession risk, as a mid-cycle pivot
  • Global asset returns: expected lower returns and higher risks with heighted volatility

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